Journal of Water and Wastewater Science and Engineering

Journal of Water and Wastewater Science and Engineering

Modeling and Forecasting the Average Water Consumption of Each Urban Household Unit Affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Mazandaran Province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Ph.D. in Statistics, Planning and Budgeting Expert, Water and Wastewater Company of Mazandaran Province, Sari, Iran.
2 B.Sc. of Information Technology, Planning and Budgeting Expert, Water and Wastewater Company of Mazandaran Province, Sari, Iran.
3 Head of Planning and Programming Department, Water and Wastewater Company of Mazandaran Province, Sari, Iran.
Abstract
Modeling and forecasting water consumption have long been a key focus of research. While various time series models have been developed to fit average water consumption data, the COVID-19 pandemic with its profound impact on lifestyles and consumption patterns has introduced new challenges for accurate modeling. This study investigates the pandemic's effect on modeling the average water consumption per household unit. It is demonstrated that the COVID-19 intervention represents a significant structural break in water consumption data, and failing to account for it introduces bias and forecasting error. Utilizing an intervention time series analysis for the periods before and after the pandemic, this research studies the average water consumption in the urban sector of Mazandaran province and provides a three-year forecast. The predictions were generated using a segmented regression model with a seasonal trend, based on an inverse-Gaussian distribution. The model's efficiency and adequacy were rigorously validated through residual analysis. The results from the proposed model indicate that, after an initial surge and a peak during the epidemic, average water consumption is expected to return to a pre-existing downward trend, which is projected to continue in the coming years.
Keywords

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Volume 10, Issue 2
Summer 2025
Pages 71-79

  • Receive Date 25 October 2024
  • Revise Date 26 December 2024
  • Accept Date 29 January 2025